Wow, so much for regular blogging..haven’t updated in a
while.
Guess I’ve been busy with wedding prep.
Let me see, since I last blogged, gold prices are coming off
their highs and REITs are being massacred going through a healthy correction (hah!) I
see this as an opportunity really to bag more REITs for long term income.
On REITS
It’s good that the REIT fever is winding down somewhat. That
highly leveraged, debt rolling REITs are seen as capital appreciation tools always
baffled me. As I understand, REITs should be invested in for their yield.
Period. REITs can only take on small bits of property development, so their
potential to unlock value is much lesser than a property developer. REITS buy
buildings which are already stable yielding and pass on those yields to
unitholders. The only ways a REIT can unlock value is through Asset enhancement
(although there are opp costs in terms of affecting current rentals) and by
borrowing cheaply to fund yield accretive stuff. That’s my really layman
understand of the REIT structure.
Despite knowing this, when REITs’ share prices soared week
after week, you are eager to chase as well, thinking that you are missing out
somewhat if you don’t. I knew interest rates rising, or any talk of it, will
certainly start the decline of REIT prices (no way a REIT should trade at PTB
1.4 seriously!) but yet I keep thinking I will sell at the top, get out with my
gains. I was caught up with the REIT fever too, wildly happy when my REITs’
share prices soared week after week. Just shows you how hard it is to stay
rational in the market isn’t it?
Well from this all, I really learned something important. Which
is never to be wildly ecstatic about paper gains. What goes up quickly comes
down twice as fast. Within a few sessions, my recently bought REITs were
trading back at my purchase levels. Life isn’t it? Another thing to rmb: trust
your gut. When you feel it’s time to take profit, just do it. My initial plan
was to divest my REITs slowly before my estimated interest rate rise in early
2014. Haha, the market always prices in stuff 6 mths early. REMEMBER.
Well no biggie. Im looking to collect more REITS to form the
bedrock of my passive income in the future, so as REIT prices fall, I’m gonna
be averaging down and adding more. I believe that REITs will be better prepared to meet any coming financial crisis, unlike during the GFC. I read that some REITS had even
prepared for this by taking on higher interest debt (cant rmb where I read
from, but I think it’s one of the industrial ones). I really like retail REITS
which are boring but steady during bad times, logistic REITS because I think
warehouse spaces are also required in a transit hub like Singapore + the whole
online shopping boom. Healthcare REITS are great esp with grey tsunami coming
on – but right now I cannot reconcile the PTB of First REIT and Parkway..so
yeah. I hope the prices continue staying low till after my wedding where I have
a better sense of J and I’s combined NAV.
Really love him for trusting me enough to invest for both of
us. Although sometimes it’s really stab in the dark for me…haha.
On Gold
I really like gold. Rationally, with all the cheap money flying
about, gold should be soaring. Alas it is not and right now it’s in a severe
bear market, coming off highs of 2011. My investments in gold is a little small
wafer bar and some ETFs. Have some silver too. I suspect the recent gold
decline was due to massive manipulation in the market through ETFs. I will
probably be buying physical from now on. Well apparently it takes USD 1100 plus
to make a troy ounce of gold, so there you have your price support.
For my Gor Dai Lei, I’m
getting gold jewellery from my mam and J’s mum. I think gold’s very timeless
and look forward to adorning myself with it!!
On 12% GUARANTEED RETURNS
Speaking of gold, let me share an interesting phone chat I
had. So apparently this guy got me number from a list of people who were
swindled by gold firms, and contacted me. Firstly, I was like swindled wert?
Did not buy from any of those gold firms dear. Yes I bought gold. Like just
pure gold that’s not on lease or funny buyback stuff. Just normal, free gold
that although has depreciated, is mine forever and I won’t have to go HL Park
to campaign the gov to help me get it back. So anyway, he started recommending
me these schemes that his company (I shall not name names) had which promised
12% guaranteed returns. I told him that no way this was possible and he said it
very well was and just that no one had ever advised me on such schemes before.
At this point, my eyebrows were raised to the point of almost disappearing into
my hair, but I indulged him. Told me about a European country (shall not name
names) listed building scheme that guarantees 12% returns a year. Apparently,
some developer buys this type of rare conserved European building, refurbishes
it and sells it back to Europeans. So we buy into this scheme by giving
developer the money to buy the rare conserved European buildings in the first
place, and we can slice up our stake to just SGD 10000, and for reasons
unknown, even though the loan should be in Eur, there is declared, no currency
risk. Then after 12 months, we get back our capital + 12% return.
I mean isn’t it like just wow? -.-
There are a thousand potshots I could take at this, but let
me just highlight 2. 1) Borrowing costs in Europe must be like what, 0% now? So
the developer feels obliged to borrow from muppets in Singapore at 12% interest
to buy a European building? Hmmm… 2) at 12% guaranteed returns, you should see
even WARREN BUFFET himself investing and pouring billions into this scheme. But
no, they have magnanimously brought the scheme to Singapore to benefit said
muppets.
My gosh, where do I sign?
Another scheme explained to me. A 3% return every 3 months
for investing in crude. Okay, sure cos
crude appreciates 3% every 3 months you know. -.-
The reason why I detailed this experience is because I feel
such unsolicited schemes are quite insidious.
Firstly, I am pissed off that the company I bought gold from
(I shall not name names) actually released my info to third party investment
guys
Secondly, it is particularly insidious that this guy is targeting
people who he feels are gold purchase victims. With the recent fall in gold
price, coupled with the whole GG buy back fiasco, one can imagine how desperate
the victims must be to try and recoup some of their losses. They are more
likely to throw caution to the wind and punt on this one winning trade that
they believe can get them 12% returns per annum.
Thirdly, the fact that it is unsolicited. Here I was coming
about my ways and some dubious investment guy calls me about this scheme. Sure
I could just block the call. But still I don’t like that they can contact you
out of the blue and sell shit like this to you. Im defo putting me number down
on the DNC registry next year.
I don’t like when people tell me this or that high return is
guaranteed. Guaranteed by who? By you? And how good’s your word anyway? But I
feel for people who may be lured by this high 12% return. I know many would say
these people are greedy but I think we should take a kinder view here. I think
many of us lay persons out there may not genuinely know the standard risk to reward percentages.
For instance, a fixed deposit which is low risk yield 1%, bonds which are a bit
higher risk yields 2%, and equities which are high risk are higher yielding
(depending on whether they are blue chippers or volatile pennys). I guess many
would just go WOW! at the 12% return and not realise that the risk must be
insanely high. And no one gives you a guaranteed 12%. Ever.
Just a word of caution to people reading this (which is
probably no one)… never buy shit that cant be sold easily in a sub market…never
buy shit you don’t understand…never buy shit from people who invite you to free
buffet lunches.
Oh wells. I probs wont be blogging till after my wed. But I guess
no one will care haha.
Cheerios.
No comments:
Post a Comment